Aston Villa failed to beat ten-man Ipswich Town over the weekend, drawing 1-1 at Villa Park, leaving them ninth in the Premier League after 25 games played, having won ten times, drawn eight times and lost seven times, accumulating 38 points so far.
Despite generating 2.42 xG in the game, taking 25 shots in the game, creating six “big chances” and holding 76% possession, the Villans only managed to score one goal, whilst ten-man Ipswich (having had Axel Tuanzebe sent off in the first half) also scored once, despite having 24% possession and only taking four shots.
Since Jhon Duran was sold in the January transfer window, Villa haven’t got that same inevitable goalscorer coming from the bench, which is showing in not only the results, but also their xG performance numbers, underachieving their xG in both Premier League games since his departure.
That has, as a result, heaped further pressure on main man Ollie Watkins to keep delivering…
Ollie Watkins' season in numbers
Watkins has made 34 appearances so far this season for Unai Emery’s side, scoring 12 goals, providing nine assists and totalling 2,369 minutes played. Whilst this is brilliant output overall, Watkins is underachieving his xG by -0.15 per 90, with a -3.7 xG underperformance this season.
Duran was a brilliant striker option for Villa to have alongside Watkins, as both strikers offered different attributes to the side, allowing Emery to make changes during games in order to give his side the upper hand, something he has now lost the opportunity to do in this manner.
Whilst Villa have signed Marcus Rashford and Donyell Malen in January, who are both brilliant additions in their own right, they are now missing the same clinical finisher and physical specimen type of striker that Duran was, which has taken a string away from their bow this season.
But one man that Villa ditched back in 2023 could have offered this alternative profile, and he is even outscoring Watkins this term.
The former Villa star who's now outscoring Watkins
Wesley Moraes is now playing for Fatih Karagumruk in the second division of Turkish football two years after leaving Villa on a free transfer, and has made 22 appearances so far this season, scoring 14 goals, providing five assists and totalling 1,784 minutes.
Stats (per 90 mins)
Duran
Watkins
Goals
1.17
0.45
Assists
0.00
0.42
xG
0.58
0.61
xAG
0.04
0.21
Progressive Carries
1.02
1.65
Progressive Passes
1.84
0.74
Shots Total
4.60
2.87
Goals/Shot
0.24
0.13
Key Passes
0.61
1.32
Shot-Creating Actions
2.14
2.60
Aerial Duels Won
3.06
1.69
When comparing Wakins and Duran’s underlying metrics this season, you can see the level of clinical finishing, aerial prowess and overall goal output (per 90) that is now missing from the squad. Watkins clearly offers a more well-rounded profile, creating for others, but currently, Villa need someone to convert their created xG into goals.
Wesley was described as a “throwback” striker by former Villa hero, Dion Dublin back in 2019, and this is the exact profile of striker the Villans are now missing on the bench, since the loss of Duran.
Whilst Emery should have enough with the likes of Rashford, Malen and Watkins to rotate his centre-forward position and the surrounding pieces to get results, there is no hiding that losing Duran was a huge loss, and even a lower quality striker of a similar profile, could be very useful for the side.
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1 ByRoss KilvingtonFeb 16, 2025